Longterm - 9/23-10/1

 

So far, it looks like it has finally started quieting down. It has been a very active month so far. At the same time, this break in significant activity may not last very long. There is still due to be an even larger earthquake somewhere. The highest magnitude the world has seen this year so far was a magnitude 7.6. On average, there is one magnitude 8+(or at least mag. 7.8-.9) per year. It could happen as soon as by the end of this month or early October. There is no way to know for sure. It could be even sooner, even tomorrow, or it could be as late as November or even December. At this point, it may be winding back down, but at the same time, it feels like there is still some instability out there. If it is finally becoming quiet for now, the next surge in activity could be around the end of this month or early next month at this point. In the meantime, there could still be some significant activity taking place somewhere, but as of right now, the next set of strong EQs may be a week or more from now. Again, it could still be active somewhere now, but at the same time, there may be a break for it has been relentlessly active over the past 2 weeks. As far as where the next significant event may take place is concerned, Indonesia is often very active and there has been more activity going on there lately. The Babuyan Islands(Philippines), the Southwestern Pacific(Tonga, Vanuatu, Loyalty Islands, Kermadec Islands, Fiji region), New Zealand, the Kuril Islands and Kamchatka Peninsula, and northern Chile would be big candidates for the next large earthquake. There could also be more noticeable activity in Japan. There was a moderate earthquake just off the Chiba Prefecture the other day. I'm not saying anything big is going to happen there. That is an extremely active country, so there is always some risk. There has also been signs of more activity in northern Italy most recently. It is not among the world's most active countries, but it has had a well known history of bad earthquakes. It was even where the Mercalli Intensity Scale came from. I'm not implying something big is likely going to happen there any time now or very soon, but it is possible. I also cannot rule out the possibility of something going on in the Central and Southeastern U.S. In recent months, it has been showing some signs of becoming more active here. There is no surefire way to know something larger is coming up. It is just something to take note and be mindful of. In the meantime, I don't want to neglect covering seismic activity going on back out west. I may no longer live there, but that doesn't mean I forgot about it. There is a flare-up of activity taking place in Southern California. There is a higher chance of mag. 3-4+ any time or day now. There could also be more seismic activity taking place in Northern California and even the Pacific Northwest. There could also be more coming up in Southern Alaska or the Gulf of Alaska or British Columbia.

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